Fog in the forecast

Nicolas Mokhoff Editor, Special Issues/Features

Stargazers seek clear skies and shining lights. Alas, the industry's view is murky for the coming year, with clouds obscuring stars in each region of the world, according to our Outlook2005 special report. The Semiconductor Industry Association, for example, forecasts a flat year worldwide and a decline of about 4.5 percent in the United States, then an upturn in 2006. India's tech sector generates billions of dollars in revenue and employs 650,000 software engineers, but high-end services account for a small portion of its work. And while fabless chip companies received about $1.7 billion in funding in 2004, the fabless business model is hurting.

U.S.
Next slump milder
It hardly seemed like we got to the recovery, and here's the downturn again. Top analysts and electronics executives say we are in the middle of a three-quarter downturn, with flat markets, slack demand and falling prices dead ahead in 2005. The good news is that this slump is expected to be mild, and several drivers are in the pipeline to spur an uptick as early as 2006 for an increasingly diversified industry.
by Rick Merritt

Europe
'Green fever' worry
The biggest bombshell that is likely to hit the electronics industry in 2005 will be launched from Europe. Its payload: rigorous European Union environmental regulations that will affect how electronic products sold to EU member nations are designed, manufactured, transported, used and eventually discarded.
by Junko Yoshida

China
A head of steam
At its heart, China is still low-end. But it's hard to remember that fact when dining with David Shen, CEO of embedded CPU maker BLX IC Design, or sharing a drink with Tom Zhang, co-founder of multimedia chip designer Vimicro Corp., or chatting on the phone with Ya-Qin Zhang, director of Microsoft Research China.
by Mike Clendenin

Taiwan
Foundries changing
The fabless chip business is changing. These days, foundries are more than just manufacturing centers catering to fabless chip startups. A big part of their revenue comes from so-called integrated device manufacturers. These IDMsÑcompanies like Texas Instruments and STMicroelectronicsÑinvest heavily in their own fabs but also farm out a portion of their work to Asian fabs.
by Anthony Cataldo

Singapore
Giant shadow looms
Adaunting neighbor shows two faces to the island nation of Singapore. China's huge market represents financial opportunities for Singapore-based companies, and tens of thousands of Chinese tourists visit Singapore each month. But China also poses a challengeÑa big oneÑto Singapore's continued economic growth.
by David Lammers

India
Waiting for ex-pats
In 2005 India's technology sector is still overwhelmingly dominated by its software companies, which generate billions of dollars in revenue and claim a community of about 650,000 software engineers. Truly high-tech services account for a minor part of the sector, either in revenues earned or as a proportion of the number of engineers-not programmers-in the country's talent pool.
by K.C. Krishnadas

Japan
Ventures take stock
Like a great ship slowly changing course, the Japanese semiconductor industry is reorienting toward a more entrepreneurial model. A number of new venture companies have recently gained attention with unique, competitive technologies. Some of those startups have raised funds by listing their stocks and others aim to join the ranks of listed companies in a few years.
by Yoshiko Hara

Tech Trends
Tech trends will topple tradition
Where to look for earthshaking technology developments? Probably the best place to start is with the roadblocks that appear to stand in the way of traditional progress. There seem to be three of them, which the industry is approaching at considerable velocity. One is the diminishing progress in making CPUs faster.
by Ron Wilson

Free Subscription to EE Times First Name Last Name Company Name Title Email address   Click here for your Free Subscription to EETimes Europe